Are electric vehicles really zero-emission and pollution-free?
This is a sensitive topic in the field of new energy vehicles (currently mainly referring to pure electric and plug-in vehicles). New energy vehicles are the key to China's overtaking in the automotive industry, but discussions over the past few years have made the concept of "zero-emission electric vehicles" as embarrassing as "the emperor's new clothes". Recently, this topic was brought up again. On September 20, Wang Binggang, director of the Technical Committee of the National Electric Passenger Vehicle Technology Innovation Alliance, said at the 2018 Global Future Mobility Conference that there are indeed doubts about whether China's electric vehicles are clean. "It is necessary to conduct an emission assessment of the energy production process and the entire life cycle of the vehicle production process in order to be able to scientifically evaluate whether electric vehicles are clean."
Some people who are similar to Wang Binggang's point of view further believe that although electric vehicles themselves are clean and zero-emission, because the entire life cycle of electric vehicles is not completely clean at present, the source of electricity mainly comes from coal. The main thermal power generation will produce smoke, sulfide, and high carbon emissions. In addition, there are some emissions in the production process of electric vehicles themselves. Many voices think that electric vehicles using thermal power are still not environmentally friendly. Unified, the temporary solution is not the root cause. This is also the most deadly doubt about electric vehicles, but most of the holders of this view do not want to oppose the development of electric vehicles.Also read:https://www.aimeno-battery.com/products/194.html
"This is inevitable. It is a product of the current stage. It will not be like this in the next ten or twenty years." The person in charge of an electric vehicle manufacturer told the reporter of the Economic Observer. There are also fiercer rebuttals in the industry - "People who say these words are too short-sighted! This view was established 10 years ago, but now it ignores the speed of technological progress, not only battery technology, but also grid technology, especially smart technology. The progress of the power grid and UHV ignores the fact that the proportion of clean energy power generation (Editor: clean energy refers to energy that does not produce harmful substance emissions in the process of production and use) is gradually increasing.” Zhou Tao, an analyst at Pacific Securities, accepted the Economic Observer During the interview, the reporter said frankly, "More importantly, thermal power generation has become cleaner and cleaner, and the industry benchmark Shanghai Wai No. 3 Power Plant has reached the emission standards of gas-fired units."
But confidence in the future does not offset doubts in the present. Do electric vehicles really transfer pollution from vehicle exhaust to the upstream power generation end? Are the sources of electricity used by more than one million electric vehicles "clean"? In this regard, the Economic Observer reported on new energy sources in various provinces and cities across the country. The statistics and analysis of automobile consumption and power structure show that the concentrated areas of new energy automobile consumption and the areas with a high proportion of new energy power generation in my country are showing a dislocation trend. As of the end of 2017, the eight key consumption areas where the number of new energy vehicles accounted for 40% of the country's total are also high-energy-consuming areas where thermal power accounts for more than 90%.
The number of new energy vehicles in the country reached 1.53 million, accounting for 0.7% of the total number of vehicles. Among them, 650,000 new energy vehicles were newly registered in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 24.02%. Among them, the cumulative sales of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles in 2017 were 107,600, accounting for 19% of the total sales of new energy passenger vehicles that year. Electric still accounts for the majority. From 2013 to 2017, sales of new energy vehicles have maintained a surge. According to the plan, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 2 million by 2020. Under this scale, the cleanliness of power sources is also facing greater challenges.
The good news is that, driven by a new round of energy reforms and power reforms, a new energy ecosystem integrating clean energy, distributed energy, and energy storage is gradually taking shape. Measures to increase the proportion of clean energy power generation such as west-to-east power transmission are also accelerating. The high level of the government is obviously already consciously promoting the cleanliness of the entire energy, so when will China's electric vehicle industry enter the era of cleanliness throughout its life cycle in the future?
Over 40% of new energy vehicle consumption comes from areas with high loads of thermal power
To analyze the energy consumption of electric vehicles, we must first understand the structure and geographical distribution of China's new energy vehicle consumption. As far as the consumption structure of domestic new energy vehicles and electric vehicles is concerned, pure electric vehicles account for the main proportion, about 84%, and the remaining 16% are plug-in hybrids. Both models need to be charged, but plug-in hybrids are actually still Mainly rely on fuel power, electricity is auxiliary power.
From the national energy consumption structure, it can be seen that in response to the outbreak of electric vehicles, China's energy structure is also accelerating its transformation to "clean". Bearing the brunt is the slowdown in the growth of fossil energy led by coal and oil. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2017, my country's raw coal output was 3.45 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%; crude oil output was 190 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.0%; natural gas output was 147.42 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%. Hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power generated a total of 1,748.5 billion kwh, all of which showed a growth trend. Among them, hydropower increased by 0.5% year-on-year, nuclear power increased by 16.3% year-on-year, and wind power increased by 24.4% year-on-year.Also read:https://www.aminobattery.com/lithium-battery/201.html
When a reporter from the Economic Observer sorted out the energy structure of major provinces and cities across the country, it was found that domestic new energy power (referring to power generation that relies on renewable resources such as solar energy, geothermal energy, wind energy, ocean energy, biomass energy, and nuclear fusion energy) The proportion is indeed increasing year by year. In 2017, among the remaining 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in my country excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions, among the regions that have disclosed the power energy structure, a total of 20 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions accounted for more than 10% of new energy power generation. Among them, Gansu's new energy power generation accounted for 41.4%, ranking first; Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Hebei provinces, and autonomous regions followed closely, accounting for more than 30%. However, there are only 10 provinces where new energy power generation accounts for more than 20%, and this proportion is not high. Moreover, these 10 regions are basically located in the northwestern provinces of Fengda and Everbright, and the number of new energy vehicles is generally low. Except for Hebei and Shaanxi, which exceed 17,000 vehicles, the remaining 8 regions have only a few new energy vehicles. Hundreds or even dozens of vehicles.
Correspondingly, the proportion of thermal power in provinces with large loads in the central and eastern regions remains high. The Economic Observer, based on the official statistics of the power energy structure released by various provinces and cities, concluded that thermal power (using coal, oil, and natural gas as fuel for power generation) accounted for more than 78% of the regions in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shandong, Anhui, Henan, and Jiangsu. , Shanxi 8 regions, the proportion of thermal power in the eight regions is: 94.6% in Shanghai, 93.5% in Tianjin, 88.3% in Beijing, 83.3% in Henan, 82.3% in Shandong, 82.2% in Jiangsu, 78.9% in Shanxi, and 78.1% in Anhui. We can see that thermal power accounts for more than 80% in six provinces and cities, and thermal power accounts for more than 90% in Shanghai and Tianjin, reaching 94.6% and 93.5%. The number of new energy vehicles in Shanghai and Tianjin ranks first in the country respectively. ranked second and sixth. Among the eight regions mentioned above, except for Beijing, which basically uses gas-fired power generation, most other regions use coal-fired power generation. The "cleanliness" of the power source structure is still worrying.
Coincidentally, the above-mentioned 8 provinces and cities are also important cities for the promotion of new energy vehicles and areas with rapid growth in ownership. Data shows that by the end of 2017, the number of new energy vehicles in the above eight major regions reached 171,000, 166,000, 80,000, 124,000, 39,000, 46,000, 34,000, and 28,000 respectively. A total of 688,000 vehicles accounted for 45% of the total number of new energy vehicles in the country at the end of 2017. That is to say, 45% of the current consumption of new energy vehicles comes from areas with high energy consumption of thermal power, and most of these 45% are pure electric vehicles or plug-in hybrid vehicles.
Take Shandong Province as an example, where the number of new energy vehicles is as high as 124,000, ranking first among all provinces and cities in the country. In 2017, the installed capacity of thermal power in the province was still as high as 103.35 million kilowatts, accounting for 82.3% of the province's installed power capacity, exceeding the national average. Level 20.1 percentage points. This is equivalent to the fact that every kilowatt-hour of electricity used by Shandong citizens, more than 80% of it comes from thermal power generated by traditional fossil energy combustion. In other words, every time the owners of new energy vehicles in the province charge, more than 80% of the energy in one kilowatt-hour comes from thermal power supply. Such a high proportion of thermal power is astonishing. Although since 2012, the proportion of thermal power in the province has gradually declined.
In addition, Qingdao City, which ranks fourth in the number of new energy vehicles in the city, accounts for only 9.4% of the city's overall clean energy consumption, which means that more than 90% of the city's energy use comes from non-clean energy sources, and electric vehicle charging is no exception. According to the data released by the Qingdao State Taxation Bureau, the number of new energy models sold in Qingdao has increased from 7 last year to 16. At the end of 2017, the inventory reached 54,000, and the sales revenue of new energy vehicles has also increased from 12.47 million last year. 140 million yuan.
"It is not surprising that provinces with a large proportion of thermal power loads are in line with the growth areas of new energy vehicle sales. This is because provinces with a large proportion of thermal power loads are mostly economically developed areas in the Mainland, where the total amount of natural power generation resources such as wind, light, and water Insufficient, but subsidies for new energy vehicles are sufficient, residents have higher awareness and awareness, are more receptive to emission reduction measures, and have the confidence to pay for them.” Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, analyzed to the reporter of the Economic Observer, “In addition , The support policies for new energy vehicles such as free license plates, unlimited traffic, and tax incentives in these big cities also play a role in promoting."
"65% of China's electricity relies on coal, and this basic national situation will not change significantly in the short term. It has to be admitted that most of the electricity used by electric vehicles burns coal. However, most of these coal electricity are transported from the resource-rich west, After the clean treatment of coal power, the environmental pressure in the central and eastern regions has been reduced to a certain extent.” An expert from the China Electricity Council, who did not want to be named, told the reporter of the Economic Observer, “In the future, more electricity from the east will be transported from the west. A considerable proportion of it is clean energy. Coupled with the boost of electric vehicles to distributed energy in the central and eastern regions, these regions will also increase the proportion of clean energy in a large proportion."
How can new energy vehicles be truly clean?
To achieve new energy and clean energy in the true sense of new energy vehicles is obviously not a problem in the manufacturing and consumption of automobiles. In terms of upstream energy, at present, almost 100% of thermal power in my country uses coal as the main fuel. Studies have shown that most of the sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere in my country comes from coal burning, and has become the largest source of environmental pollution in China. As for natural gas power generation, which supports 90% of Beijing's electricity demand, natural gas is generally considered a clean energy because of its high calorific value, low emissions of carbon dioxide and harmful substances. However, some studies have also shown that methane leaked during natural gas extraction and processing has a greenhouse effect 25 times that of carbon dioxide. Therefore, whether natural gas is clean is also controversial.
In the new emission assessment of the power industry, "clean power generation installed structure" has begun to be used as the main evaluation standard, and among them, "non-fossil energy power generation installed capacity" is the main indicator. The so-called "non-fossil energy" refers to the energy sources other than oil and gas.Also read:https://www.aimeno.com/lithium-battery-pack/189.html
In May 2017, five Tsinghua University scientists published an article in "Applied Energy" (Applied Energy), showing that since most of China's electricity is generated by coal, and the battery production process consumes a lot of energy, the greenhouse gases produced by China's new energy vehicles Emissions are actually 50 percent higher than those of an internal combustion engine car. However, according to a 2007 study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), direct comparisons between pollution from power plant smokestacks and pollution from car tailpipes are inappropriate because cars emit emissions where people live and live , while power plants are generally remote and away from cities. The study shows that 1 ton of harmful particles (PM2.5) emitted by cars is about 11 times more harmful than 1 ton of harmful particles emitted by power plant smokestacks, in terms of total number of people affected and health impacts.
Producing electric vehicles and charging them with coal-generated electricity could pose an equally serious pollution problem than gasoline vehicles, but that will depend on how it is calculated. According to Lu Jiayu, deputy director of the High Voltage Research Institute of China Electric Power Research Institute, the degree of pollution from thermal power generation mainly depends on whether the pollutants are concentrated and effectively treated after power generation. The cleanliness of thermal power generation must be judged by region and specific situation, and the pollution cannot be evaluated by the total amount of emissions.
"The electricity used by electric vehicles at this stage is indeed inseparable from coal-fired power generation. Although it will cause some pollution, this pollution source is relatively concentrated. Compared with each fuel vehicle is a mobile pollution source, centralized treatment of large-scale Coal-fired power plants are clearly easier to operate than decentralized governance". An industry insider from Zhongyin Electronics, who did not want to be named, told the reporter of the Economic Observer, "It is only necessary to control the pollution of the front-end power plants. Therefore, in terms of the difficulty of managing pollution sources, electric vehicles still have an advantage."
In the view of the above-mentioned people, although electric vehicles are expected to grow to 5 million by 2020, they still account for a small part of the entire energy plate. Calculated on the basis of 50 kilowatt-hours of electricity per vehicle, the installed electricity of 5 million vehicles is 250 million kilowatt-hours. If it is charged 100 times a year, the annual electricity consumption is 25 billion kilowatt-hours. "Compared to the country's annual electricity consumption of more than 6 trillion kilowatt-hours, this proportion is indeed very small." The person added.
However, considering the battery production process and coal-fired power generation links, the pollution in China's new energy vehicle industry chain may still exceed that of internal combustion engine vehicles at this stage, because the levels of carbon dioxide and PM2.5 released by the two are roughly equivalent per kilometer driven . In addition, the recycling of batteries is also a huge pollution, but there is no effective control method yet, and the recycling system is in its infancy. But it will also become easier if countries keep regulating power plant emissions, making plants cleaner. At the same time, due to changes in the fuel mix and improvements in power plant emissions control, the rate of emissions from power generation may be more than halved by 2030.